This month’s Trusted Advisor report, written by Tom Cagley, Vice President of Consulting, addresses a popular question regarding estimation: Are Estimates Based on Historical Data or Subject Matter Experts Better?
There are a number of different estimation techniques, from model-based to composite to learning-oriented. However, only expertise-based methods are not based on a model or mathematical network generated from collections of historical data. Expertise-based estimation is, by far, the most popular form of estimation in use today.
This report examines the question at hand, to see if the popular choice (expertise-based estimation) is the “better” choice. Ultimately, we conclude that estimates generated from models leveraging historical data in calibrated tools are the only logical choice. Read the full report to see how we reached this conclusion.